fists with love and hate on the fingers

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A good friend of mine, Paul Wildman, is a futurist.  This is a bit unusual today.  There was a time when ‘futurologists’ and ‘futurists’ were quite often in the media - especially people like Alvin Toffler.

I think the futurists became less prominent in the media when people realised that they weren’t claiming to predict the future.  People probably felt cheated - you call your self a futurist and you can’t tell me about the future!  This is an understandable reaction.

So what use is futurism?
Firstly it lets us know that the future is almost certainly going to be different to the present.  But most of us plan on the future being much like the present.  We plan lots of our lives on this basis: where we live, the kind of mortgage we take out, the kind transport we use, to name only a few.

Secondly futurists let us know about alternatives.  One major branch of futures is concerned with scenarios.  What this means is that from the study of the current situation it is possible to see particular trends.  From these trends it is possible to see different possibilities.  Common scenarios for our societies in general are things like high tech.  We all drive super efficient (gravity powered?) cars, while we listen to the computer embedded in our brains.  There is also the green scenario.  We can live happily and healthily using light technology and working only a few hours a day for the necessities while enjoying our relationships with friends and family.  Then there are apocalyptic scenarios.  The wealthy barricade themselves away from the violence due to starvation from global warming.  This brings us to the third thing.

Futures confronts us with choice.  To know that more than one future is possible (as envisaged in different scenarios) means that we have a choice.  It highlights that somehow collectively we make the future.

Which brings me to our health.  The single most important factor for health (according to the Whitehall Studies - see Michael Marmot’s The Status Syndrome) is having a sense of control over our own lives.  In this way, adopting a futurist perspective can make us healthier.

For myself, I prefer a green scenario.  I want as many of the people on our planet as possible to live to a healthy old age.  For me this means light tech (not necessarily low tech) and local are the way to go.  I think the high tech path is to expensive - both in economic terms and in terms of it’s impact on our planet.  I think that we can all lovely rich lives (though not necessarily with all the stuff that the ‘developed’ nations have) with existing technology.  (And I don’t think that many us want the stuff all that much anyway.  For me it is usually compensation for our unpleasant lives.  If we live better lives we won’t want all that stuff is my bet).

At the moment I’m experimenting with if I can make a future where blogging is a source of income for me.  This is some way off still, but it affects what I do every day.

Deciding on the future you want can range from a sociological study to devise different scenarios taking years all the way to planning what I’ll get done to do.

But whichever scenario you strive to create, setting about creating it will be good for your health.

What are your preferred scearios for your own and others’ future?  Let me know in the comments.

If you liked this post you may be interested in a review I did of The Status Syndrome.